Carbon neutrality refers to the total amount of Carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions directly or indirectly generated by a country, enterprise, product, activity or individual within a certain period of time, through afforestation, energy saving and emission reduction, etc., to offset the carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas generated by itself to achieve positive and negative offset, to achieve relatively "zero emissions."
Hearing about carbon neutrality immediately thinks that this is an environmental issue. Because of scientists' research, carbon dioxide will heat the earth and sea levels will rise, which will threaten the survival of human beings in the future. Therefore, to be carbon neutral is to protect the environment.
China's overall goal of carbon neutrality is to strive to achieve carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.
中国人民银行行长易纲也表示，中国要实现碳达峰、碳中和， 需要的资金规模要百万亿级别。要知道，中国一年的 GDP 刚突破 100 万亿元，可见碳中和这个工程有多大。
Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, also said that in order to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China, the scale of capital needed should be in the trillions of billions. You must know that China's annual GDP has just exceeded 100 trillion yuan, which shows how big the carbon neutrality project is.
CICC estimates that in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, 139 trillion capital is needed. This means that in the next 40 years, the average annual green investment demand will account for 2% of China's total GDP, which is similar to the current scale of the entire information industry (information transmission, software and information technology services in 2020 GDP 3.8%) trillions).
CICC also made details: 10 years before the carbon peak in 2030, China's annual investment demand is about 2.2 trillion, a total of 22 trillion. In the 30 years from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, the annual investment demand is 3.9 trillion yuan.
碳达峰：108亿吨 Carbon peak: 10.8 billion tons
When carbon peaks in 2030, how much will China's emissions peak? According to CICC's model, it is 10.8 billion tons.
The United States achieved a carbon peak in 2005, with a peak of 6.1 billion tons; EU member states reached a carbon emission peak earlier in 1979, with a peak of 4.1 billion tons. If China follows the peak of 10.8 billion tons, which is much higher than the United States and the European Union, it seems that there is still a lot of emission space that can be used to develop industries.
Is it really? Not really. China's emissions in 2020 are already 9.899 billion tons. Using 10.8 billion tons to calculate, there is only less than 1% increase space per year in this decade. This is less than 1% of the carbon emission increase, but it has to support the average GDP increase of 5%, which is under great pressure.
More importantly, China's carbon peak is much higher than that of Europe and the United States, which will make carbon neutralization more difficult for us in the second half. The time limit for carbon peaking to carbon neutrality in Europe is 71 years, the US is 45 years, and China is only 30 years. This is equivalent to a downstairs exam. The European Union takes 7.1 minutes to get down from the 41-meter-high roof; the United States takes 4.5 minutes to get down from the 61-meter-high roof; China takes 3 minutes to get down from the 108-meter-high roof.
How can this be done? Carbon trading must be carried out, social governance must keep up, and green investments in technologies and industries such as clean energy and carbon capture must also keep up. So, the next big indicator to keep in mind is the investment scale of RMB 139 trillion.
碳中和对个体的影响 The impact of carbon neutrality on individuals
How does carbon neutrality affect individuals? This individual can be an individual or an enterprise. I think there are at least two things that deserve your attention.
First, for individuals and businesses, the cost of living and production may rise in the future.
With the further advance of carbon neutrality and the withdrawal of coal burning, the cost of electricity will rise in the short term, which will increase the cost of electricity consumption. In particular, some energy-consuming and high-emission industries need to pay extra costs for green transformation. When the cost of production is high, the price for consumers to buy things will also go up. We have to be mentally prepared. Of course, as the green technology matures, the cost will gradually decrease.
Second, there will be a large number of green industry opportunities in the future.
For example, my country is currently promoting rooftop photovoltaic pilot projects, installing photovoltaic panels on the roofs of rural residents, schools, and hospitals, as well as developing wind energy and hydrogen energy. These new energy industries are potential development directions for individuals and enterprises. For traditional energy companies, green and low-carbon transformation is also required, and the financial industry also needs to develop green financial products. There are business opportunities here.
碳中和是第三次能源革命 Carbon neutrality is the third energy revolution
What will lead the next technological revolution of mankind, the world has been debating for a long time, some people say it is 5G, some people say it is genetic engineering, some people say it is blockchain, there is a voice that is getting louder and louder:the next technological revolution of mankind is energy revolution.
Looking back at history, there have been two energy revolutions in human history. The first was the invention of the steam engine, which made coal the basis of industry and made Britain.
The second time was the invention of the internal combustion engine, which made oil the blood of the industry and made the United States successful. The U.S. linked the U.S. dollar to oil, creating U.S. dollar hegemony, and making the U.S. dollar a parasite in the oil age, madly sucking global wealth.
In the future, when China mainly realizes clean energy and no longer uses too many dollars to buy oil in the Middle East, the hegemony of the United States will collapse by more than half. This is carbon neutrality. For China, it is a unique interpretation angle related to the national destiny.
中国错过了第一二次能源革命，再不能错过第三次。碳中和带来的这场清洁能源革命，就是一次新的机遇。现在我国的光伏、风能产业， 已经全球领先。2020 年全球前20的光伏企业，15家都是中国的，现在基本不用政府补贴就能运转起来。
China missed the first and second energy revolutions, and can't miss the third. The clean energy revolution brought about by carbon neutrality is a new opportunity. Now my country's photovoltaic and wind energy industries are leading the world. In 2020, 15 of the top 20 photovoltaic companies in the world are Chinese, and now they can basically operate without government subsidies.
China's UHV technology also leads the world. Be aware that UHV technical manuals and industry standards are translated from Chinese to English. With UHV, the electricity generated by wind power and photovoltaic can be transmitted over long distances, and can even be networked around the world and transmitted to foreign countries.
China also leads the world in the field of electric vehicles and batteries. The development of these technologies has also given us the confidence to make a commitment to achieving carbon neutrality.
Today we analyze what "carbon neutrality" means, as well as China's goals and costs to achieve carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality is not only an environmental protection issue, but also an issue of the game between great powers. It is also an issue that affects every company and individual, and deserves our continued attention.
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